Hindsight is 2025: Recap of healthcare predictions

We made some predictions about healthcare in 2025. See if we got them right.

athenahealth doesn’t build solutions solely for today. We make it our business to train an eye on tomorrow as well, the better to guide and help the practices, partners, and payers we work with. In a shifting healthcare landscape, we track the trends and strive to anticipate and address our customers’ needs. In that spirit, let’s take a look back at our predictions for healthcare in 2025.

Prediction #1: The continued integration of machine learning and AI in healthcare

It’s no longer a guess — it’s a given that AI will continue to find valuable applications and increasing adoption in both clinical and administrative sides of medical practice. What has been astonishing in 2025 is the speed at which it developed, and the explosive expansion of AI-supported tools for clinical and patient engagement purposes. A 2024 poll found that 28% of medical groups surveyed had used ambient AI technology for speech transcription or drafting notes;¹ a little more than a year later, 68% reported that they were adding or expanding their use of AI tools in 2025,² and 71% of practices reported using AI in some capacity in patient visits.³

athenahealth is at the vanguard of AI-powered innovation in healthcare. In September 2025, we unveiled our next-generation, AI-native EHR designed to simplify the clinical workflow, automate routine tasks, and deliver personalized insights, enabling a more patient-centered approach to care. athenahealth R&D teams are actively engaged in finding valuable applications for the technology. They’re testing, iterating, and listening to customers to see how we can apply these tools to take on work and simplify the practice of care.

Prediction #2: A steady rise in demand for medical specialties

At the start of 2025, we expected to see increasing demand for specialty medical care. Specifically, we focused on the growing need for behavioral health and urgent care options for America’s patient population – and the importance of meeting patients where they are. How did those trends manifest?

Urgent care

Quick, convenient, and typically available for same-day walk-ins, urgent care clinics continue to be popular. As patients continue to seek out price transparency and easy access to care, it made sense to predict that urgent care centers would see an era of growth. But did it happen? It depends on who you ask. At the beginning of the year, we noted there were about 14,000 urgent care clinics across the country; now there are more than 15,000, according to one industry association.⁴ But another source has flagged that the urgent care industry may have reached a state of maturity, with growth rate slowing overall.⁵

What’s still true is that busy patients want the convenience of urgent care centers located where they live, work, and shop. For those clinics to thrive, specialty-specific healthcare IT designed to align with the unique needs of urgent care centers can help them stand out in the crowd, and distinguish themselves with sophisticated patient engagement tools and streamlined workflows that help clinicians treat or triage the patients walking through their doors.

Behavioral health

We also predicted a rise in demand for behavioral health services. One organization stated that as of the end of 2024, more than 122 million people lived in a Mental Health Professional Shortage Area.⁶ By August 2025, 29 U.S. states had enacted 75 bills to address mental and behavioral health coverage mandates, parity requirements, workforce issues, crisis response, and school-based initiatives.⁷

Whether in one-on-one encounters or group sessions, in person or via telehealth, Americans need access to behavioral health support that meets them where they are. A behavioral health EHR and healthcare IT solution, featuring best practice clinical and administrative workflows, patient engagement tools, and a success model developed specifically for behavioral health, can help providers deliver coordinated, meaningful care. Additionally, AI is playing a larger role in behavioral health: ambient listening tools now allow clinicians to focus on the patient, not on composing session notes.

athenahealth doesn’t build solutions solely for today. We train an eye on tomorrow as well, the better to guide and help the practices, partners, and payers we work with.

Prediction #3: Increased adoption of value-based care to diversify payment models

At the start of 2025, we expected to see growing adoption of value-based care models such as fee-for-value, shared risk, and global capitation. We anticipated that this would drive increased need for interoperability and connectivity between EMRs and HIT systems. What we learned from our 2025 Physician Sentiment Survey (2025 PSS) bears out this prediction.

The 2025 PSS provided evidence of a gradual shift from fee-for-service models toward either hybrid models or exclusively value-based care models, with an 8% decrease in fee-for-service compared to the 2024 survey. Whether practices are motivated by potential financial gains or by complying with regulatory requirements, the interest in VBC models is growing. There may be generational differences at play: younger providers were more likely than their older counterparts to report using VBC models.

According to the survey, physicians’ perceptions around value-based care have shown a measurable shift toward the positive. In 2024, the Physician Sentiment Survey found that 4% of responding physicians thought adopting value-based care payment models would be critical to simplify the practice of care. By 2025, that number jumped up to 15%.⁸

As fee-for-service reimbursement rates decline, it becomes crucial to help practices feel more comfortable with risk-based contracts. athenaOne® has native value-based care capabilities designed to support patient care and program reporting for practices, no matter their current level of familiarity and experience with value-based contracts. 

Prediction #4: Increased demand for digital tools

Patients have grown accustomed to managing their healthcare online – just as they manage other facets of their lives, from travel and transportation to grocery shopping, restaurant reservations, and entertainment. Looking toward 2025, we anticipated a strong demand for digital healthcare tools, especially in specialties such as behavioral health and women’s health.

Responses to our Physician Sentiment Survey showed us that this increase in patient access has become a double-edged sword. Even as 61% of responding physicians agreed that patient portal use has improved the overall quality of care, and 55% stated that portal use has improved patient outcomes, about two out of three physicians (68%) admitted that they feel overwhelmed by the volume of patient questions arriving via the patient portal.⁹

Current advances in AI are making it possible for us to improve the way patients and practices communicate. In 2026, we plan to introduce Patient Conversations, which will include AI-powered two-way text messaging. Automating some routine communications can meet patients’ demand for personalized care while taking a significant burden off the shoulders of clinicians and staff.

Wondering what’s next for healthcare in 2026? Read on.

At athenahealth, we continue to invest in the future of healthcare. Find out which three healthcare trends athenahealth’s Chief Strategy Officer Michael Palantoni is following in 2026. For more trend analysis, subscribe to the athenaInstitute newsletter for the latest thought-provoking research and insights.